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I'm warming to Ernest, but so so sick of -ie nns. And I thinkit would be shortened because Ernest is quite serious. Ernie Arnold doesn't have great flow either: I want to say Arnie Ernold!
Gideon is good. I don't think it needs an nn, but if Gids happens occasionally, it's not that bad. I think in a WW1-couple-sort-of-way Ernest and Theodora match very well, but in a right now, usable way, Gideon's a better option.

I like both names!

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I prefer Ernest to Ernie. I still have Bert and Ernie associations from Sesame Street although I'm sure if I knew an Ernie IRL it'd grow on me.

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I know a Gideon and he's always gone by his full name. I don't think nicknames are inevitable.

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For pairings, I'd rank them:
1. Theodora & Ernest
2. Theodora & Gideon
3. Theodora & Ernie (if Theodora had a nn they might match better)

I love them both.
Gideon would likely be shortened to Gid at some point by someone. I don't think it's horrible (though Giddy isn't great).
I think they both go very well with Theodora.

I prefer Ernest to Gideon, but I also prefer Ernst to Ernest. Theodora and Ernest are excellent together.

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Ernest Arnold sounds fine; so does Ernie Arnold. Gideon Arnold doesn't seem to flow as well. Gid and Giddy don't bother me particularly.

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Where I live, it seems (though I've got no way of researching!) that people are tending to use the full name rather than even the most obvious nn - Robert, for instance. The youngest Bob I know is in his 40s. Elizabeth is the exception I suppose, but it's not in the same league as Gideon.

Of the two I prefer Gideon on first reaction, but Ernest could grow on me (just have to get past the Bert & Ernie association!). In fact I might try it out on my list with some combos...

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It actually has never occurred to me that Gideon needed a nickname. Gid/Giddy are not appealing at all. What about Deon? I don't think it's too contrived.

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Gideon Arnold flows better than Ernest Arnold. But I prefer Ernest with Theodora - an interesting conundrum!

Ernest is great, I like it a lot. Would you really need to shorten it to Ernie? Ernest is only two syllables anyway, so you and then he, could say it's Ernest not Ernie. Ernie Arnold doesn't really bother me. It's no more of a mouthful than Theodora Arnold. I also think Ernest works much better as a brother to Theodora.

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Gideon I LOVE! It's definitely on my list if I can convince DH for a 4th child! Gideon is a very Biblical name, not that it bothers me, but would seem out of place with Theodora imo. I don't think Gideon necessarily needs to be shortened either.

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Theodora and Ernest all the way!

I don't like Ernest/Ernie. I think it sounds too old and crusty for a little boy, and too silly for a grown man. I do like Gideon, and I don't think it will get shortened in any serious way; if anyone calls him Gid or Giddy, it might be just his friends, in a casual way. I don't think he'll be known as Gid/Giddy, if you call him Gideon.

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I advise you not to use a name you hate the shortened versions of, though. Once the kid gets old enough to decide for himself, he might like the shortened version, and then you'll hear it every day. You never know.

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I think both Ernest and Gideon go well with Theodora, but I would rather see Theodora and Gideon together as sibs. That's just me.

Ernest is one of those dated, ugly names. Sorry, it just is. Gideon is dated to but not in the same way and it isn't 'yucky' sounding. (Though the giddy sound I rather don't care for but that's besides the point) If it was between those 2 names, then Gideon. Plus, it goes better with your daughter's name IMHO.

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Gideon Arnold sounds good!

I adore Ernest! "Ernie" is cute, but I prefer the name in full.

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Gideon is quite handsome.

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Ernest complements Theodora better than Gideon does, in my opinion.

I love Gideon but Ernest is irredeemably nerdy to me.

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I do think Gideon will at least occasionally be shortened to Gid. I've known people who insist on shortening the names of everyone they know, so I don't think it's possible to completely avoid it. It wouldn't necessarily be done by everyone all of the time though.

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I don't think it likely that Gideon will ever be shortened to Giddy.

I'd cross off Ernest because it has the same old clunky feel as Arnold if it were a first name, which obviously you can't get around having in there. So putting the two together feels like overkill.

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Gideon is a lot more fresh and "modern" feeling, similar to Theodora, so I'd go for that of the two. I don't think it would get shortened, I've never known one who went by anything but Gideon. Plus it's not really that hard to correct people if they did try to shorten it without asking.

I think Ernest is an alright middle name, but I don't really like it as a FN and I think Ernie is horrible.
I like Gideon better and the thought of a nickname has never crossed my mind. I think Gideon sounds better with Theodora, but I also think that names you have mentioned previously sounds even better with Theodora.

Ernest quite recently got removed, because I just wasn't loving the sound and seriousness of it. I'm not a big fan of Ernie either. But it's a nice name, and I'd love to meet a little one to sway me. Gideon, however, I still really like. He has a hint of adventure and fun, I feel like he could've been one of Arthur's knights. I definitely don't think a nn is needed, but I think Eon (said Ee-on, rather than Ian) is an option, although I think Giddy is cute. They both go well with Theodora, vintage charm and all that.